Announcements x Daily Discussion for Weekend of December 04, 2021

  1. No. But they do track close if commons are above 10. At commons= 10, there is risk. A recent high redemption SPAC had rights at 84 cents near merger.

  2. My dumbass loaded the boat on $ASPG instead of $CFVI because I was silly enough to think the market would like a well established company

  3. According to Daniels new update, PPGH did their preliminary filing for Gogoro in mid November. That's a relief. Now the price just needs to get back to $10.

  4. FTX and Alameda is like Citadel and Robinhood combined together. Conflict of interest, they do a lot of shady stuff.

  5. DWAC looked a lot better from technical analysis point of view, hitting $20 in after market the first day before taking a hard bounce off $10 the next day and hitting $40 by close.

  6. The Rumble DA was the first interesting deal, in my opinion, since DWAC. Will social media spacs be the new EV spac craze? hoping vygg gives us the best of the bunch, though DWAC will be quite hard to beat just on hype alone.

  7. Don't BSGA rights seem like pretty decent value? .66, so you're paying 6.60 per common at merger. Obviously if the merger doesn't happen they'll go down a lot but with such a small float I don't see the merger being cancelled. Plus it seems like they're not trying to raise money, they just want to go public. (Bitdeer crypto mining)

  8. It's not a perfect measure or anything, but generally when a SPAC offers rights, there's a DA on the table, and the rights are a lot cheaper than the equivalent amount of stock, you should believe the rights and not the stock.

  9. Tether created $1.5 billion worth of USDT in 24 hours… I have no money in crypto but I’m a bit worried about this bubble bursting. How can we hedge against it?

  10. Can someone explain to me how circle makes money? Like do they collect fees for processing?? I’m a little ignorant on this, but seems like there might be a good buying opportunity soon if you are a big crypto believer

  11. I don't understand how regulators are having such a hard time figuring out if it's a scam with money like that being thrown around.

  12. Ultimately, the day Tether is definitively proven a fraud is a good think for Circle, but whether the initial market response is to treat it as such or to simply punish the other stablecoin is the mystery. If CND gets crushed on Tether's brass being perp-walked, I'd be a buyer.

  13. Please SVOK warrants, no more drill tomorrow. I swear if you come back to my cost basis, I’ll sell, and won’t ever touch warrants in my Roth again lol

  14. Don't you think that if it were true, the CEO would not be tweeting about KCGI specifically, lol? I don't know the legal ramifications of that but it doesn't seem right. It should be more like Peter Rawlinson where he straight up says he can't comment on talks with CCIV (although his laughing on TV kind of gave it away).

  15. Check out all the issues and terrible economics with Ivanpah…. That’s my main concern. My industry has tried for years to make solar steam work and it has lots of problems

  16. Bought commons a few months back. I’ve been waiting a decade to buy Bill Gross’ solar thermal, but Heliogen looks much better opportunity, given its diversification to expand beyond just generating electricity

  17. Good luck with this trade! I have a small position and hopefully we see some nice volume this week. Tough time though with the current state of the market.

  18. The more I read about GRAB the more bearish I become. They are burning so much cash with profitability nowhere on the horizon ( probably years and years away if ever). Interviews since going public don’t instill confidence either.

  19. Yes I’d be shorting if it pops again, though 35B right now is still way overvalued, with revenue down and cash burn up significantly last quarter, compared to $SE in the same region which grows like weed and $UBER in the same business which just posted a profitable quarter actually. GRAB trades at 55 revenue multiple based on Q3 numbers while UBER is at <5. Think about that for a second.

  20. Post-COVID. 2023? I dunno, growth will have to thread the needle between global pandemic and global climate catastrophe. 🤔

  21. Next week we find out about $AMPS. I'm regretting I sold half my units but I had not done enough research before close Friday. Just saw this Barron's article from Friday for anyone interested in a quick read:

  22. Exquisite weather and happy days down here in way south Florida. Nature really putting on a show. Moor hens, eagles, osprey. Too cold for gators to be active. Found (yet another) house. This one falling into the 275K range and ticks all my boxes. Send good vibes. The cash I sequestered and the trades I made to liquidate positions to have the cash for escrow saved my ass in radical downturn last ten days. ;D Got a good feeling. Would like to take my 600K-700K in a split- 50% in USA 50% where I see myself in 8-10 tears. Hoping for the straddle.

  23. Unfortunately my positions most certainly did not print lol...but the wife and I did get our first puppy this weekend! Black lab named Bruno

  24. ORGN long hold, high risk high reward. If they prove commercial scale with Origin 1 then I think the stock will start to run. Best case that happens before end of ‘22. Execution so far has been solid and decent amount of insider buying. Upside if successful is massive. This price will look cheap in that scenario.

  25. I love your write ups! May this house be the one that’s been waiting for you. Sending highest good house vibes your way. 💗

  26. I am still laughing about that bot. And your response! I do think the Ukraine news is shocking to those who haven't kept up with geopolitical issues for the past 15 years or so. Also agree with your DWAC pipe question. Would be interesting to see who is in the PIPE.

  27. Anxious. Was feeling confident until the sea of red. Would like to see a wider bounce tomorrow, or at least sideways. Else another long leg down...

  28. As frightened as I would be normally holding past merge. Such a crapshoot they are with odds being they go down.

  29. I honestly think the near and long term outlook is very favorable on DCRC! I plan to buy tomorrow and again if we get a dip after ticker change (doesn’t seem likely at this point).

  30. Think it will run up next week through merger, then dip, then run higher as new price targets are assigned by analysts in the next few months

  31. Probably a pop on the 7th when the vote passes, then a selloff on ticker change when the pipe can sell. What comes next all comes down to institutions.

  32. cautiously optimistic. the merger catalysts are real and the stock is oversold—couple that with some nice green days in the overall markets, and i think it pops. tons of assumptions in there, but i guess i'm just not buying omicron as causing a real correction. indeed, poor jobs numbers and covid uncertainty should tame the fed for now. high inflation means that folks have nowhere to go besides stocks.

  33. Another choppy week ahead, but my crystal ball tells me Santa rally will start from dec-14th, overall market also. Then major correction come next feb-march.

  34. Feel the same I did two weeks ago as I did two months before that. I believe it will have a run up after ticker change. Might get memed on WSBs might not. Still have cash on hand for a dip if I am wrong, but when they hand over those 100 Ah batteries to Ford and BMW I think that is when they truly will get noticed (especially if it performs well). Plan on holding some long term regardless unless we have a crazy run.

  35. yeah i'm still beating the indexes but not by so much that the pain and stress of it all make as much sense anymore.

  36. There are actually some great finds out there right now. Some actual revenue generating and even profitable companies out there being punished unjustly. If you can stomach a little volatility, now may not be a bad time to load up on stocks that you think are the future.

  37. So, can we expect this whole tax loss harvesting episode to end at least by mid December?

  38. I reordered some Habanero Pepper SNAX as if you read my SNAX DD it's now my all-time favorite jerky or meat food, and I'd ran out. So I added some Scorpion Pepper SNAX as it was Sold Out when I did my big DD order. Here's the deal. Scorpion **** is the real deal in terms of heat. I opened up the bag & noticed the meat had an orange hue to it. I knew I was in for trouble when I saw that. This tastes SUBSTANTIALLY HOTTER than Habanero Pepper SNAX, like orders of magnitude. So the only way you'd like this is if you're into hot wings & the like.

  39. White guy as well. I ordered habanero, scorpion, and reaper. Habanero was good but didn’t have much heat. I’ve eaten a habanero straight up before, so I was expecting more heat. Scorpion and reaper are hot. I was impressed. Both are legit hot. I’ve been eating some all week and only regret it the next day. Would order again.

  40. That jerky looks bomb. I legit am considering buying that variety pack. Is vacadillos part of Stryve?

  41. Off-topic: For those who are considering investments in real estate / rentals, here are the late November timesheet entries from my local Handyman:

  42. Man, my parents are home builders and started flipping foreclosures after the housing market went bust. And the things we have seen and had to clean out is just mind blowing. Cleaned out one where the basement was 1’ deep of cans and bottles along with cat and dog shit. Still had a couch, computer, tv, and looked like they used the space. So many drug houses, damage like all the outlets hammered in, cabinets destroyed and worst of all found a dead body.

  43. Dam. If police are seriously that lax about showing up and doing anything what are the odds you could wait until your squatters leave then throw all their stuff out and change the locks before they get back.

  44. Any one holding FTCV is insane. Primetime was during the HOOD IPO, had Etoro IPO'd around the same time, this could have easily doubled (especially during the HOOD gamma burst)

  45. I’m going to be charitable and assume they actually like them. Lot of SPAC Twitter personalities buying into a few different projects, I don’t think the mories are any worse artistically than the BAYC people for example.

  46. Avpt co-founder bought another $250,000 in stock has bought $500,000 in the last 3 months and 1.4 million within the last year. Guess he knows a bargain when he sees it at $6.40 a share wtf.

  47. Basically, yes. Eventually this market will "flip", and fundamentals will matter again. When that happens AVPT rockets, which is why the insiders (not just CEO) are buying. It's also why I jovially laugh on here about AVPT being my biggest loss (on paper) in the history of my investment career (personally not professionally). I'm not worried about AVPT in the least, and in fact, I'm about to call some family members to get them to invest in it and I NEVER DO THAT.

  48. Lots of things on sale if you’re willing to hold. My short term pos are all dead. Relying on long term holds to save me. You know, like BARK… lol…. 🪦

  49. I got forced out of a bearish position in RBOT (call credit spread) on Wednesday after my short $10 April calls got early exercised (I didn't want to hold a short stock position because the borrow rate was insane so I closed everything). I'd been in the position since the start of November and RBOT had barely moved for a month.

  50. Did you end up looking into Ivanpah and all the issues with it and see how ATHN has improved or fixed issues? Or just a case of Ivanpah was too early and now with govt direction it’s a better option?

  51. why CMLT? I remember liking the target initially, but isnt all that stuff currently getting spanked? Is the plan just to have it as a pre merger warrant ramp up?

  52. I'm bullish on all the Ukrainian hyrivnia I'm going to get for my US dollar. Actually really sucks I have several Ukrainian friends and I love visiting Ukraine. Fuck Putin.

  53. Is that scheduled for before China's amphibious invasion of Taiwan or after Iran unveils its nuclear arsenal? Trying to get my 2022 roadmap laid out

  54. Luna / Terra run up alot, I really regret not pulling the trigger when it dropped to $6 before... :(

  55. I find it hilarious and hypocritical all the pretentious FUD in a SPAC forum, which gets giddy with Trump’s latest scam, or some other shitspac, but hyper focuses on crypto as tho it’s somehow worse than the bad behavior within SPAC land

  56. Tether's market cap is $75 Billion, or 3% as you say, but it's heavily focused in the top-tier of names. I have no idea what that means mathematically, but I'm sure it's an effect many X more than 3%.

  57. Congrats! I’m so happy for you! She knows you invest in spacs, right? 😜 The ring you chose is absolutely gorgeous and timeless. Well done. 👍

  58. DWAC got the PIPE done. Pretty impressive they were able to do a full billion at only a 20% discount.

  59. Wow the terms on the PIPE are great for the institutions — “If [the VWAP for the 10 days post-merger] is below $56, then the conversion price shall be adjusted to the greater of a 40% discount to the Closing VWAP and the floor price of $10.00.” Unless DWAC goes under 10 or absolutely nosedives post-merger they can’t lose.

  60. Uhhh yeah if the VWAP for the first 10 trading days post-merge is above $56. Guessing there’s no lockup, so it’s literally a free $400-500 million for the tutes

  61. I really liked my assumption in January that post merge warrants had a floor around $2. Which has now changed to $1, which may need to change to $.5. So that’s sweet…

  62. Karmalizing was just saying warrants lose value after 1.5yrs quickly if they're not performing (due to expiration). I've never had one long enough to find out.

  63. I'm assuming there's a high correlation between growth stock investors and crypto investors. People gotta cover their margin calls somehow.

  64. Bout time, most crypto has absolutely no fundamental value (at least yet) so it has the largest downside if financial conditions keep tightening

  65. Elaine Chao, former Secretary of Transportation and Mitch McConnell's wife, recently joined the boards of ChargePoint and Hyliion (and Embark). Having her as a lobbyist board member seems bullish for more government climate change funding

  66. The difference between the various options of bringing a company to market is probably not especially important to normies.

  67. just looked at spacfolio again and damn PTIC, IGACW and others are all near ATL’s again. jesus. fortunately i trimmed my higher cost average portions so i’m not hurting as bad but jesus that was fast

  68. Sorry buddy. Sold my 1001 ptic at .72 to be rid of it. Now it’ll take a month for someone to get antsy and bid it back into the 80s

  69. I think they said sometime in Q4 they’d get the deal finalized. I hope they finalize it soon, although I wasn’t in love with the company a DA is a DA.

  70. I mean it went down 50% in 2 weeks on no substantial news so assume it will continue to move in one direction or another

  71. Remember when we were complaining about how crypto apps don’t show your profit and loss…. On second thought… maybe that’s not so bad after all lol

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