Announcements x Daily Discussion for Tuesday, September 21, 2021

  1. Tomorrow Chinese market impact... Some of Evergrande bonds are yielding 130% and 500%. Man I hope we sail through this and the feds meeting. Most riskiest of small caps at a time when everyone is shit scared. FML

  2. Seems like imminent danger has passed. Either way short the trash long solid companies and hope your longs hold and shorts print

  3. China Evergrande Main Unit Hengda Real Estate Group Will Make Coupon Payment For Onshore Bond Due September 23 - RTRS

  4. Has anyone seen an empirical study on the relative value of warrants when they're 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, and 1/5? On one hand, I'd assume the rarer the better (supply & demand), but on the other hand the entire value is based off the underlying so it shouldn't matter. So is it fare to say that rarity only matters pre-target, and that post-target it's nearly irrelevant? Or am I way off.

  5. https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/obm884/does_the_number_of_warrants_included_in_a_unit/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

  6. Realistically supply demand. Either supply is overhanging and it drops shares obviously 1/2 or 1/3 have this happen easier. Or demand rips and 1/4 or 1/5 make this move more exaggerated

  7. What’s up with Lucid warrants so heavily at a discount? Owners have to immediately exercise by early next month, so why are they still trading low?

  8. So it seems to me that even when the NASDAQ was down ~3.5% Monday, warrants (especially for SPACs with DAs) were shockingly stable. My E*ETRADE account is 85% warrants and it closed flat and was even up 1.5% mid-day somehow haha

  9. I have a watchlist for just SPACs & warrants. They don’t seem to rally as much as commons once they hit $2, but they also don’t sell off as badly. I think it’s a good sign too.

  10. Yeah I noticed the same. But if things really start to get bloody I expect warrants to dump as people sell to raise money for margin calls or dip buying.

  11. Mine were/have been flat for a bit now. ESM is the only one that risen for me worth speaking about but not on any volume really. I’m not counting my chickens though.

  12. Same, I've been waiting for deals and instead stuff has been wandering slowly upward. People not scared enough yet, wake me up when there's a sale going on.

  13. Same experience here and it makes sense--despacs are mooning or at least rising again. Especially if you're grabbing the cheapest warrants within their dilutive class (1/3, 1/4, etc.), they actually are increasing in price.

  14. This is also what I saw on my lists and in what I’m holding. The cheap Post DA warrants even seemed to drift up (HZAC and CBAH standing out). Still depends on what you are buying but if you loaded premium warrants Sub 1, less well regarded around .8, and post DA under 1.6 in the past month I think you are going to be pretty happy a few months out (unless you bought more SVOKW)

  15. I don't mind that i missed IRNT or TMC. but I'm having a hard time forgiving myself for not having the courage to hold RKLB and VLTA. I believed in them until i saw the carnage in springtime.

  16. Same reason I couldn’t bring myself to do more than a tiny play on GME. I may have held some embarrassing SPAC bags this year, but I could not bring myself to risk losing a substantial chunk of money going long a video game strip mall store in 2021.

  17. The 2nd #2 might be true, its hard to buy a SPAC youve known was garbage for months already. The 1st #2 I disagree with, if you size the position appropriately, buying calls on TMC last week or RKLY isnt any more risky than buying options on any other de-SPAC.

  18. Many people (including me) are victims of "It will tank when I buy" fallacy. Eventually, some will FOMO and by then it will be "too late" as the plays have nearly reached the end of their life. The fallacy is that if one had gotten in during the early stages of the squeeze meta they would have done quite well.

  19. I just looked at their investment presentation and they are still in the "prefeasability study" phase, with the feasibility study set to start in 2023. Unreal... This seemed like a pretty obvious scam to me which is why I never looked into it more, but I didn't realize it was that bad.

  20. Your post above pretty much sums it up. Only thing I’m in right now is AVPT and I can’t do these shit spac sqeezes. Not much brining me back to the sub right now.

  21. 1000 GSAH warrants since…Feb? Been bagholding forever. Honestly shocked how well they’ve held up compared to commons though. Planning to average down before merger & pray for a pop.

  22. Some guy writes DD on INDI on WSB and today over 60k October calls were purchased when open interest across the Oct chain was around 2k, lol crazy

  23. Wish I were a baller like Aunt Cathie that casually buys $24m COIN and slap a few million pocket change on DNA GENI. I’ll be a very happy man.

  24. I dont think Cathie Wood understands finance. I dont know if SOFI's a great buy, but she doesnt own SQ or PYPL either, and both should have been slam dunks, SQ particularly as it's been in hyper-growth phase as both a finance stock & a tech stock for several recent years.

  25. I remember when you said you were leaving 2 hours ago. I guess you made it more than 5 minutes but an hour isn’t impressive when you said you were done.

  26. The amount of shuffling ASTS calls I've done is staggering. For some reason i always seem to sell covered calls at the absolute worst price because I'm scared.

  27. Considering the state of the de-SPAC market I would expect RBOT to fall back to earth in the near future. Just look at that chart.

  28. He can use PSTH to structure a complicated deal, get it rejected by the SEC, then keep it for PSH anyway. The move shall be dubbed "The Ackman" if he were ever to pull that off.

  29. Just to add about a month ago I got out of all my pre da spacs and moved my money into something safer. About a week ago I got about 3000 herw around .98. And sold today around 1.20. I figure that it is about to pop but haven’t seen anything here. Just trying to give exposure to anyone interested. I have now sold all of my position with a total gain over 20 percent. I hope this means a DA for the rest of you

  30. Anyones’ guess. Welcome to the waiting game. I think we’re up to day 76 since rumour was reported on bloomberg. This month or next seem ripe for a DA.

  31. Mentioned earlier today that I was looking at it when it was a shade under $3 last week, but didn’t have any money to pull the trigger. Would of been a quick 30-40% gain.

  32. I don’t know if I have ever been this excited for a merger to be completed like DCRC/SolidPower. Really looking forward to it in the next month or two. Getting some activity going above NAV is pretty exciting. Think this will perform well in the next few months (after ticker change).

  33. I dont really think China is that viable due to the political concerns and that the CCP would step in and try to make sure a chinese backed competitor wins in the end but the market of India is where I would see real potential moving forward which is large and much less risky.

  34. FUSE/ MONEY LION. I guess it's memable. Should have bought in... Oh well. The trust is too large that's why i stayed away from any attempt at squeezing it.

  35. Who is writing 7.50s for spacs near 10.00 with floors intact? I noticed I make up almost all the open interest in a few of my call plays, but it seems like there is almost always someone ready to sell to me near intrinsic value months out. These are not high upside plays for whoever is writing them when breakeven is close to nav, intrinsic value is huge, and extrinsic value is like $5 to decay over 180 days...

  36. So basically anything you think might move above NAV before redemption, you believe these are better than warrants. Is there much liquidity in these options? Or do you exercise them?

  37. Warrants still at 2.40. I know there is a weak correlation, but I picked some up in case this one goes up permanently .

  38. I really think the sports betting market is going to start consolidating big time... thinking of starting a position in AUS and SEAH simply because I think they may be good acquisition targets.

  39. Because this is another time that DKNG is burning ridiculous amounts of cash for aggressive market share expansion at the expense of shareholders. They are the ones that will effectively pay for this.

  40. Companies in that group rely on more physical shops in the UK, especially Ladbrokes and Coral. Government created some new regulations about the slot machine things they have in them, adding a cap on how much you spend per go. Many of these shops relied on those to remain open. Not worth the price they are willing to part with for them.

  41. Sounds like they got in bidding war and are not getting that great of deal. Someone almost bought them for less than half of what DKNG is trying to get them at.

  42. I think Rivian is using Wallbox (KCAC) for their chargers? Anyone know this for sure. If so another catalyst for it potentially as they are starting shipping and maybe ramp to 20k units next year?

  43. Love me some avpt and Payo right now, also holding LATN and can literally cannot stop buying RDW, I would sell my car to pick more up if I didn’t need it every day 😂

  44. Delivering Alpha is a recurring CNBC event scheduled well in advance, I wouldn't expect Chamath to announce IPOD or IPOF at that time. In fact, it would be pretty douchy if he did.

  45. I read how Ackman tried to structure the deal with UMGP and just reading the summary hurt my head. I really think he did this to himself, and his investors.

  46. Anticipating profit taking from pipe and others, I sold covered calls on RDW. Holding warrants. Responsible thing to do given it’s in my tax advantaged account.

  47. nobody in this subreddit is better at dodging winners than I am. I'm like fucking Neo dodging a hail of bullets, except each bullet is a double digit runner. 🤦‍♂️

  48. TLDR: synbio will take off this decade. Ginkgo has no competitor. DNA is clear leader with highest upside, hardest to displace. Synbio offers a solution to ESG issues and secured supply chains. The science is here and the industry is at an inflection point. You have three big players. ZY, AMRS, & DNA. None are really competitors and operate in their own “sphere”. ZY has good tech but recent failure on product. CEO just resigned. AMRS worst tech of the three and I have serious doubts about their capabilities, but producing products now with high margins. Mainly cosmetics and flavors. DNA has clear lead in tech and horizontal platform allowing companies of any industry to use. Other two are vertically integrated. DNA is not just fermenting yeast like AMRS which allows them to target essentially every industry. Gaining significant footprint in pharma. Huge considering they came in to the industry in reverse order. DNA can survive purely for R&D foundry work. But valuation factors in high TAM of programs being successful. All data from programs is collected in codebase to be used on any program building a moat and reduces costs making a competitor less likely by the day. Largest presence on making synbio mainstream and understandable (key for adoption). I could keep going on about positives. Biggest negative is before 2021, not many program successes. This year has changed that and seen significant more demand for foundry services. Costs have gotten low enough for startup to get join which will give a lot of equity stakes for DNA

  49. I would not describe gingko as pharma... Materials would be closer for synbio as a whole and gingko is more nuanced than even the sector as a foundry model

  50. I mean these low float despacs are great fun and greater gains, but my main play is still a boatload of ggpi warrants. At this point I'm almost to the point where da happens next year it'll be way better for tax purposes....

  51. despacs are the play. I honestly have no idea what the tickers are anymore. After THCB finally merged I stopped following new SPACs

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