Quarantinus



Quarantinus

When you come across a feel-good thing.

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Quarantinus

Prayers up for the blessed. Gives %{coin_symbol}100 Coins to both the author and the community.

Shows the Silver Award... and that's it.

Thank you stranger. Shows the award.

When you come across a feel-good thing.

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Quarantinus

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All aboard! Every five Party Train Awards gives the author 100 Reddit Coins and a week of r/lounge access and ad-free browsing. Rack up the awards and watch the train level-up!

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  1. Waiting for ER for Microsoft to decide what to do. I am not confident in anything I choose. Should have gone hard at UPST and MSFT today.

  2. If you're waiting for Microsoft's ER, you'll be buying at the top. Cloud services revenues alone should be over the roof. The goal here is to take advantage of the ER boosts all these should be getting this week.

  3. I thought we were waiting for big tech to have a correction. Unless this morning was it...

  4. A "correction" is a very strong word and it requires a major catalyst we haven't seen yet. Don't forget all the major investment firms, HFs, etc are heavily into this sector. This talk is in part FUD so institutional players can load up some more at a discount or cover their shorts profitably (look at this week's earnings). You should have seen short-seller Jim Chanos speaking on CNBC today (if you want to go long, always inverse what short-sellers say in public). Just see how we turned green at the end of the day. I expect a positive week for this sector.

  5. Finally closed my ESSC short and sold the Feb 30Cs I bought to hedge it. Total time open <1wk, total return ~38%. 10/10 would GaMmA sQueEzE again

  6. Could you explain this better? You shorted ESSC and incurred in a loss of -38%? Because of the calls you bought to hedge your position? Supposedly, you hedge to minimize the risk, but if the short is successful (which definitely was) the hedge should not be such that it totally cancels your shorting profits and even leads you to a loss. Unless I'm not understanding your statements correctly. At what prices did you open and close your shorts and what were your strikes?

  7. Looks like you figured it out, but I opened the short at $15.90, closed at $10.70, and the hedge cost me just over $1.00. With commissions and borrow fees I made around 38% profit

  8. Yes, great play. That was the way to do it. I had several short entry points just above 15 and closed just above 11. Didn't hedge because I could afford the risk. You played it perfectly, congratulations. Let the next one come.

  9. I have this on my watchlist for a few days already, but I'm playing this one differently. I think this will play out just like FATH did. The stock was shorted a lot once the nav floor was removed. Once it stabilizes at some hypothetical bottom (you can see this through the price action and volume), there will be some covering, pushing the price a few dollars above the bottom. In the case of FATH, the bottom was the low 5s. It has been slowly rising since then and is currently trading in the 9s. I think the same will happen to GLS, but this is just my reading of the current situation.

  10. How do you manage to find so many stocks with these patterns? Do you look at dozens and dozens of stocks you've never heard of before one-by-one until you find several showing these patterns? Or are you employing some software that scans hundreds of stocks automatically until it finds those showing the patterns you have specified beforehand?

  11. Pulling for another $NTRB spike. Borrowing rates still above 350% shares to borrow have been super low the past few days seems to be stuck at 366 left to borrow since 10:30 am 😵‍💫

  12. BFRI took a month to squeeze since the day I first alerted everyone to it, essentially the squeeze only began when the SI data came out a full month later, people noticed and started piling on (and it even took a SeekingAlpha article for people to notice). Waiting until Jan 26 for the NTRB data might be too long a wait for many, and shorts will attempt to cover passively a significant fraction of their open positions until then. A problem I see they are facing right now is the lack of liquidity, that's why they had to create that double-halt on Tuesday: to attract people's attention and thus increase market liquidity, otherwise any small order they would put up would result in a massive price spike. Borrowing fees continue sky-high and the stock continues to be in the hard-to-borrow lists, which implies most of the borrowed shares and sold short have not been returned to the respective lenders' accounts yet.

  13. Had anyone tried shorting a spac before the redemption floor falls out and holding through merger? Can you do that or does the position get closed on merger date? I read somewhere that since the share is borrowed and someone you borrowed from might redeem and have it closed out too. Just wondering if this is an option for bad SPACs that don’t have options for puts. Any info is appreciated.

  14. If the investor you borrowed from decides to redeem, your broker transfers $10/share from your account to the lender's account (regardless of the price the stock is trading at at the time because you're not forced to buy back in the open market) and registers your short position as closed.

  15. Fun fact: REVB at 624,675 shares is the 3rd smallest despac float ever. Only after EFTR & HLBZ which both saw $40+.

  16. Fun fact: Forward Purchaser Meteora has 750k shares that can be sold in the open market. This in addition to the current float after the redemptions.

  17. Redemption plays have been weird lately for some reason. I've been seeing small floaters trading sideways or tanking, others "squeezing" a little bit but nothing like in the old days (bttx was the last true redemptions play). Maybe people are getting fed up with that, I don't know. It seems more like a sentiment thing than anything else. Maybe this all has to cool down before people are willing again to push for those massive redemption plays that we witnessed a few months ago.

  18. The backstop agreement was filed with the SEC as part of a Form 8-K on Jan. 3rd:

  19. How are the Backstop Purchase Shares subject to registration? I thought this agreement was put into place to backstop the redemptions. Haven't they bought back part of the shares that were returned to be redeemed and which are already registered?

  20. Looks like the backstop shares are not redeemed shares, but rather newly issued:

  21. Great, that's good to know. Combing through the filings can be quite the hassle.

  22. The buyback is not to be a catalyst. Instead, the buyback is an important detail because it tells us there won't be an offering any time soon (the company has plenty of cash available), so no fears of a potential dilution.

  23. You da real MVP, always good to post PRIOR to 30% jump and not after.

  24. Everyone in the squeeze community knows that the OP does this kind of things, both on reddit and twitter, but let me tell you that this is fine. We need "pumpers" like him. We take care of the "theory" and people like him eventually start to increase awareness of the theory as soon as they see the first signs of validation. Without "pumpers" there would be no squeezes (unless the squeezes are institutionally-driven of course), and usually the people that originally discover the plays are not very good at pumping and are often ignored. Hopefully NTRB plays out well for everyone! It should be a wild ride.

  25. HILS will IPO this Wednesday. The offering price will be $5-$6. Do you think this range will hold? I'm not quite accustomed to biotech IPOs. Here's a description of their focus:

  26. Offering changed to $4. IPO float will be 3.75M shares. My prediction is that the IPO will follow IMMX's recent IPO on Dec 16 (same field, similar float and opening price).

  27. SRPT just halted. News pending. It might be about the data for their gene therapy treatment of DMD.

  28. Thanks for submitting this request! It’s been flagged for manual review (not a bad thing!). This might delay a decision by a couple weeks. In the meantime, please politely

  29. The moderator team consists of a single mod, I asked this mod in advance through chat (no link unfortunately) if I could take over and the mod said no. Here is a copy-paste of the exchange (can be confirmed with the mod):

  30. This was probably setup to let the puts expire worthless. Shorts will need to cover now, as well.

  31. Short volume for MCMJ today was 258k. In any case, shorts don't "need to cover" (in the sense that they don't have to buy back shares in this case). They could try to do it while the stock is still trading below $10, but the stock price will likely be at $10 at 4:01am tomorrow, so no chance. If the lender they borrowed from decides to redeem, then the broker just transfers $10/share from the shorts account to the lender's account and registers the short position as closed, so they are not forced to buy back the shares in the open market. We just had a recent case of that here in the daily thread about two days ago.

  32. Is any organization reporting short interest that confirms the estimate made in the DD?

  33. You don't understand. Exchanges report official short interest data twice per month to FINRA.

  34. Up 28% today, but I'm not confident it will stay that way during the next days. If you're interested in this stock, you should definitely read this stuff I wrote about a week ago:

  35. That website isn't wrong on the max pain. Max pain is simply a calculation of the most open calls and puts that would impact option holders on a target expiration/strike price. You mentioned anything under $2.50, but there are no strikes under that and OI starts at $2.50. The site is very good at calculating max pain and showing call/put ratio. I just want to point out that max-pain is just a theory that has been observed in the stock market on the options chain.

  36. You're not giving any compelling arguments, you're just repeating "that website isn't wrong" in different ways.

  37. No the price had plummeted hard, my account was showing that I had over 20K in unrealized gains. I shorted 11k shares at 9.95...the price dropped hard just as I had speculated.

  38. That's correct, ATMR/FATH was always trading quite above $9.60 before and during the redemption period (that would have been quite an arbitrage play had it been otherwise), so you shorted after this period was over (that was quite a gamble though). Thanks for this exchange as well!

  39. Thank you for the explanation it was very much appreciated. Let me ask you a hypothetical question regarding "shorting". Lets say I short Mircosoft at $313 today and then 10 days later Microsoft rallies 10% to $344. If the person I borrowed shares from sells there Microsoft position on that 10% rally at $344 would that automatically close my losing short position and make me immediately responsible for the 10%?

  40. By the way, just a small technical question. When your broker closed your short position and asked you to pay $10/share, what was the price the stock was trading at at that point in time? $9.95 still?

  41. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1810560/000121390021067371/ea152961-8k_petraacq.htm

  42. Days to Cover = Short Interest / Average Daily Volume.

  43. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873835/000149315222000069/ex99-1.htm

  44. That's webull's number. I don't trust webull when it comes to the float number, they have been wrong many times. Check S3 partners or even marketwatch: 1M or less. In fact around 950k.

  45. That tweet is incorrect, no shares of FATH were backstopped since the min cash condition was achieved without needing it. Notice how it says "up to $10 million in the event that the revised minimum cash condition is not otherwise satisfied." Therefore, at least all of the 2.3M shares of FATH are tradeable, which would be the same amount as ATHN.

  46. Wasn't there a PIPE investor that defaulted on their obligation to buy 1M shares? Wouldn't that result in the minimum cash condition not being satisfied, which would in turn require 1M shares to be backstopped? I honestly don't know how things would work in such a situation, when part of the PIPE defaults.

  47. That new ESSC thread looks suspicious af with the amount of new users in there dropping typical pump lines. It reads more like a

  48. P&D or not, ESSC was a great play when it was around $10.80 or so. Only like a 5% downside at that point.

  49. Even around $11 is not a bad entry point in my opinion if you know when to take profits, because the shares will likely be trading above that for some periods (anything at or above $12.50 is extremely risky though). I think the options chain will continue to improve and we might even see a little bit of a run closer to expiry if we are lucky, but this is just speculation on my side (I don't have a position yet btw). My only concern right now is that the borrowing fees are extremely low and the volume has not been particularly high, so the stock is very susceptible to being shorted heavily. In addition to that, the spac target is awful, which might dissuade HFs from playing this game (on the long, as opposed to short, side). And FATH, etc, are the new kids on the block.

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